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10:00am
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Day 1, Wednesday, January 11, 2017
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10:55 - 11:55am
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Results from 2016
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Chair: Rappaport
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10:55am
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FY16 NHC Verification
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Franklin
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11:05am
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NHC's forecast challenges in 2016 and view on developmental priorities
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Blake & Demaria
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11:25am
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2016 Year in Review: JTWC TC Activity, Forecast Challenges, and Developmental Priorities
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Strahl
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11:55am
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Operational Modeling Center Reports – (Chair: Rappaport)
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11:55am
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HWRF FY16 Performance
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Zhan Zhang
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12:10pm
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EMC Hurricane model upgrades and priorities for 2017
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Mehra
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1:00pm
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COAMPS-TC FY16 Performance and FY17-FY18 Plans
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Doyle
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1:20pm
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Performance of Ensembles and FY17-FY18 Plans
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Zhang & Moskaitis
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,
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1:40pm
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Long Range Plans
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Tallapragada
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3:05pm
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HFIP Team Reports (20 min each)
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Chair: Mehra
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3:05pm
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Strategic Teams
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3:10pm
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Model Developments
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Xuejin Zhan & Zhan Zhang
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3:30pm
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Physics Strategy
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Abarca
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3:50pm
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DA/Initialization/Ensemble Development
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X.Wang
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4:10pm
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Post Processing/Verification
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DeMaria & Zelinsky
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4:30pm
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HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach
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Simon & Penny
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4:50pm
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ATCF developments
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DeMaria & Sampson
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5:30pm
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DTC core activities
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Newman
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5:55pm
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Tiger Team Reports (20 min each)
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Chair: Gopal
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5:55pm
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Ensemble Products Tiger Team
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Torn
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6:15pm
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FFO Award: Evaluating Methods of Parameterizing Model Error in the HWRF Ensemble Prediction System
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Torn
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6:25pm
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Ocean Model Impact Tiger Team
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Kim & Halliwell
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6:45pm
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Hi-Res Physics Tiger Team
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Gopal, Abarca
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7:05pm
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Summary and Wrap up: How did we do in 2016?
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Chair: Marks
Discuss Day 2 agenda and optional group dinner
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10:00am
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Day 2, Thursday, January 12, 2017
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10:30am
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Connecting HFIP to NHC's Partner Needs
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Knabb
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10:40am
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Next Generation Efforts
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Chair: Marks
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10:45am
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Replacing Operational Hurricane Wave model
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Avichal
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11:00am
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DA progress and plans
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Sippel
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11:20am
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Strategy for hurricane prediction in NEMS
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Avichal
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11:40am
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Nesting capabilities in FV3
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Harris
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12:00pm
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Basin-scale and beyond
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Gopal
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12:40pm
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Open Discussion Priorities for HFIP
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Chair: Tallapragada
Future of GFDL hurricane model
Continuation of multi-model regional ensembles
Generating new ensemble-based products
Continuation of HFIP Web Page
Computational resources – utilization stats
Stream 1.5 Discussion
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3:00pm
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2016 FFO Award - Overview of Projects (20min each)
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Chair: Hedge
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3:05pm
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Intensity Error Growth and Predictability Limit in the HWRF Model
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Kieu
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3:25pm
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HWRF Self-consistent En-Var Hybrid Data Assimilation System to Improve High Resolution Hurricane Vortex Initialization
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Wang
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3:45pm
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Improvement in Hurricane Intensity Forecasts using Neural Networks
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Gosh & Krishnamurti
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4:05pm
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Improving HWRF's Ability to Predict Rapid Change in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Governed by Internal Physical Processes
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Ping Zhu
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4:25pm
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Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Track, Intensity, and Structure with an Analog Ensemble
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Rozoff
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5:10pm
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Priorities for NOAA's hurricane prediction under funding uncertainties
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NWS funding
OAR funding
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