2016 HFIP Annual Review Meeting (Jan 2017)

Jan 11 - 12, 2017 ET

National Hurricane Center (NHC)
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, FL, 33165

Overall Objectives

The HFIP program is guided with the advice of Strategic Planning teams and Tiger teams. The purpose of the HFIP Strategic Planning teams is to develop a multi-year strategy for improving hurricane forecast guidance. The Tiger teams will be responsible for overseeing the development of specific new capability for the hurricane forecast guidance system. Overall, the role of the team members is to ensure the HFIP Strategic Plan implemented represents an integrated plan across NOAA and involvement from the community outside NOAA which will lead to achieving the overall HFIP goals. This meeting will provide updates from the various teams and discuss the NOAA strategy related to the Next Generation Global Prediction System developments and the strategy to address the hurricane problem.

The agenda will consist of three parts;

  • Reports from each of the strategic and tiger teams on activities and results from 2016; and priorities for 2017
  • FV3 hurricane prediction development strategy
  • Priorities for NOAA with HFIP funding uncertainties


Title Presenter Presentation
10:00am Day 1, Wednesday, January 11, 2017
10:55 - 11:55am Results from 2016 Chair: Rappaport
10:55am FY16 NHC Verification Franklin  
11:05am NHC's forecast challenges in 2016 and view on developmental priorities Blake & Demaria  
11:25am 2016 Year in Review: JTWC TC Activity, Forecast Challenges, and Developmental Priorities Strahl  
11:55am Operational Modeling Center Reports – (Chair: Rappaport)
11:55am HWRF FY16 Performance Zhan Zhang  
12:10pm EMC Hurricane model upgrades and priorities for 2017 Mehra  
1:00pm COAMPS-TC FY16 Performance and FY17-FY18 Plans Doyle  
1:20pm Performance of Ensembles and FY17-FY18 Plans Zhang & Moskaitis  ,  
1:40pm Long Range Plans Tallapragada  
3:05pm HFIP Team Reports (20 min each) Chair: Mehra

3:05pm Strategic Teams
3:10pm Model Developments Xuejin Zhan & Zhan Zhang  
3:30pm Physics Strategy Abarca

3:50pm DA/Initialization/Ensemble Development X.Wang  
4:10pm Post Processing/Verification DeMaria & Zelinsky  
4:30pm HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach Simon & Penny  
4:50pm ATCF developments DeMaria & Sampson

5:30pm DTC core activities Newman  
5:55pm Tiger Team Reports (20 min each) Chair: Gopal
5:55pm Ensemble Products Tiger Team Torn

6:15pm FFO Award: Evaluating Methods of Parameterizing Model Error in the HWRF Ensemble Prediction System Torn  
6:25pm Ocean Model Impact Tiger Team Kim & Halliwell  
6:45pm Hi-Res Physics Tiger Team Gopal, Abarca  
7:05pm Summary and Wrap up: How did we do in 2016? Chair: Marks

Discuss Day 2 agenda and optional group dinner
10:00am Day 2, Thursday, January 12, 2017
10:30am Connecting HFIP to NHC's Partner Needs Knabb

10:40am Next Generation Efforts Chair: Marks

10:45am Replacing Operational Hurricane Wave model Avichal  
11:00am DA progress and plans Sippel  
11:20am Strategy for hurricane prediction in NEMS Avichal  
11:40am Nesting capabilities in FV3 Harris  
12:00pm Basin-scale and beyond Gopal  
12:40pm Open Discussion Priorities for HFIP Chair: Tallapragada
Future of GFDL hurricane model
Continuation of multi-model regional ensembles
Generating new ensemble-based products
Continuation of HFIP Web Page
Computational resources – utilization stats
Stream 1.5 Discussion
3:00pm 2016 FFO Award - Overview of Projects (20min each) Chair: Hedge
3:05pm Intensity Error Growth and Predictability Limit in the HWRF Model Kieu  
3:25pm HWRF Self-consistent En-Var Hybrid Data Assimilation System to Improve High Resolution Hurricane Vortex Initialization Wang  
3:45pm Improvement in Hurricane Intensity Forecasts using Neural Networks Gosh & Krishnamurti  
4:05pm Improving HWRF's Ability to Predict Rapid Change in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Governed by Internal Physical Processes Ping Zhu  
4:25pm Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Track, Intensity, and Structure with an Analog Ensemble Rozoff  
5:10pm Priorities for NOAA's hurricane prediction under funding uncertainties NWS funding
OAR funding