HAFS Introduction and Goals
One of the key strategies defined in the revised Hurricane Forecast Improvement Plan (HFIP) in response to the proposed framework for addressing Section 104 of the Weather Research Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 is to advance an operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) at NOAA/NWS. HAFS will be a multi-scale model and data assimilation package capable of providing analyses and forecasts of the inner core structure of the TC out to 7 days, which is key to improving size and intensity predictions, as well as the large-scale environment that is known to influence the TC's motion. HAFS will provide an operational analysis and forecast system out to 7 days for hurricane forecasters with reliable, robust and skillful guidance on TC track and intensity (including RI), storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall and tornadoes associated with TCs. It will provide an advanced analysis and forecast system for cutting-edge research on modeling, physics, data assimilation, and coupling to earth system components for high-resolution TC predictions within the outlined Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS)/Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP) objectives of the Unified Forecast System (UFS). HAFS is supported under Hurricane Supplemental project - 3A-2: Accelerate Re-engineering of Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS).
Some of the objectives for establishing an operational HAFS are:
- advance deterministic and ensemble prediction capabilities to 7 days
- enable fusion of modeling, data assimilation and observations to produce an analysis of record
- improve statistical post-processing methods to extract guidance and uncertainty information