Project 1A-4: Accelerate development of operational capability for multiple high resolutions moving nests
AOML/HRD AOML developed the first ever multi-level, multi-nested high resolution HWRF system capable of tracking any number of hurricanes in a semi-hemispheric (regional) domain consisting of the Atlantic and East Pacific, dubbed as the Basin-Scale HWRF. Under this project, it is planned to develop moving nest framework for tracking inner-core structure of hurricanes which is a key for improving Tropical Cyclone intensity predictions in FV3GFS.
Project 3A-1: Accelerate Hurricane Forecast Improvement Plan
The goal of the next generation of HFIP is to significantly reduce impacts by providing improved forecasts and warnings and more actionable environmental intelligence. Specific goals include increasing forecast accuracy of TC tracks, rapid intensification (RI), and extreme weather events (e.g., total water prediction and flooding). This project and it's overlap with Projects 1A.4, 3A.2, 3B, 4A.1, and 4A.2 will primarily focus on developing the capabilities and functionality of existing operational HWRF and HMON within HAFS.
Project 4A-1: Optimize current observing system to improve prediction of extreme weather
The objective of this project is to conduct data impact studies to optimize the use of current observations to improve prediction of extreme weather, including hurricanes. AOML will quantify the complementarity of different observing systems, including oceanic, airborne and satellite data; will evaluate different sampling strategies and plan to deploy for subsequent data denial experiments and perform cost/benefit analysis of different sampling strategies. Observing System Experiments (OSEs) and other data sensitivity methods, including ensemble forecast sensitivity to impact of observations are planned as well.
Project 4A-2: Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)
In this project, AOML plans to extend previous OSSE work and perform additional OSSEs to optimize the use of current observations and sampling strategies by evaluating the potential impact of current and proposed observations and develop NOAA's next generation of global FV3-based OSSE hurricane system.