2023 HFIP Annual Meeting

HFIP Annual 2023 Group Image

Nov 14 - 17, 2023 ET

Miami, FL and Virtual

Major Actions and Takeaways

  • Actions
    • Strategic Plan 2025: We need to create a new Strategic Plan for 2025, with updated 5-year and 10-year goals.  Some things to think about when formulating these updated goals based upon discussions at HFIP Annual Meeting:
      • Advance the operational hurricane analysis and forecast system (HAFS), including a HAFS-JEDI transition plan
      • Improve probabilistic forecast guidance, by quantifying intensity, track, structure (RMW, R34) uncertainty (how do we measure R34 in model vs obs?), and greater emphasis on leveraging tools such as reanalysis and machine learning
      • Enhance communication of risk and uncertainty.  Application of triangulation results to product suite (AFS Tropical Roadmap)
      • Support Dedicated High Performance Computing Allocation - Dedicated RDHPC vs Cloud
      • R2O Enhancements (HOT, DTC, EPIC, UFS R2O)
      • Broaden expertise and expand interaction with external community via EPIC and UFS
    • Tiger Teams: We will form two tiger teams, one for data assimilation (DA) and the other for uncertainty quantification (UQ)
      • The DA team will be led by Jason Sippel and Daryl Kleist, and will focus on the need to replace GSI with JEDI.  Which model infrastructure, physics, etc updates will need to be delayed in order to test, evaluate, and implement JEDI?  If other model development continues at same speed, it will continue to delay JEDI implementation.  DA tiger team will develop an implementation plan and oversee progress and eventual transition.  They will target the HAFSv3 FY25 transition, coincident with GFSv18. 
      • The UQ tiger team will be led by Wallace Hogsett and one other person (from CIRA? TBD).  This team will provide a proof of concept: Provide storm specific ensemble model statistics to produce PDFs of model parameters (track, wind, RMW, R34, etc.) to develop, test & evaluate uncertainty information guidance for WTCM, WSP, P-surge, & P-Rain operational forecast guidance products (HAFS ensemble, CTCX ensemble, GEFS, etc.) using ML approaches e.g., DESI, TCANE.  First develop a proof of concept, develop new probabilistic tools and products, and then calibrate and verify these products.  Explore cost versus benefit of single-model versus multi-model ensemble.  Leverage ML approaches, such as DESI and TCANE. 
    • HAFS Training Tutorial: HFIP will work with the community, EPIC, and DTC to coordinate a HAFS tutorial to increase the user base, as was done with HWRF in the past.  
  • Takeaways
    • Need to establish new 2025 strategic plan with updated 5 and 10 year goals.  First strategic plan was in 2009, last updated in 2019.  Need clear goals, as was done in the past. 
    • Transition from GSI to JEDI will be a major step that we need to take. 
    • Improved probabilistic guidance, quantification of uncertainty.  Can we better leverage reanalysis, or machine learning for this?
    • Enhance communication, particularly with respect to risk uncertainty
    • Need dedicated HPC support, and strategy for continued adoption of cloud.
    • R2O enhancements and collaboration with HOT, DTC, EPIC, and UFS R2O.  Broaden expertise and expand community, particularly through EPIC and UFS. 
    • Need to increase diversity in the models, particularly between HAFS-A and -B.  Physics diversity helps, but also need diversity in the initial conditions. 
    • Need more focus on storm structure, particularly in terms of size of the wind field.  Not only does a larger wind field impact a larger region, but it also is the main driver of storm surge.  
    • Why are there differences in model forecasts in large bust cases?  For example, why was HAFS-B consistently better than HAFS-A for Philippe (2023)? 
    • What can the global system do to make our lives easier on the TC side?  At which point is the GFS cycling good enough that HAFS does not have to run its own cycling? 6-km resolution DA using JEDI is consistent with GFSv18 development ~5 years out. 
    • NHC would like to see us optimize and verify the wind speed probability thresholds. Need to make sure we get data into AWIPS. 
    • Need to think about physics issues, particularly in the “gray zone” for parameterized deep convection. 
    • NHC: top priority should be to make sure spread-error score is appropriately tuned for track and intensity at all lead times. 
    • Need to develop improved precipitation forecasts for TCs. Inland freshwater flooding is a major source of damage and loss of life. 
    • Need to verify probabilistic wind swath and probabilistic precipitation forecasts.  Does a 40% chance of wind above X threshold or precipitation above Y threshold verify 40% of the time? 

Day 1 - Session Details and Slides

Session 1A: Leadership Remarks and Updates - https://youtu.be/DNAPFO6UY38

Session 1B: Forecaster Needs and Activities Supporting Operations - https://youtu.be/Dc7igPeFqKE

Session 2A: Challenging storm working group - https://youtu.be/WLuJjAj677Q

Session 2B: Impact of Recon Data on TC Forecasts - https://youtu.be/ulhNdIL0nVo

Day 2 - Session Details and Slides

Session 3A: HAFS Implementation 23/24 - https://youtu.be/TGDoM45f5k8

Session 3B: HFIP R2O & O2R - https://youtu.be/BQ1GwI6v8z4

Session 4A: Hurricane Observations Panel - https://youtu.be/7HA-A1-_LTU

Session 4B: DA and Impacts - https://youtu.be/Fz9hYFsTQcI

Session 4C: Focused DA Discussion & Lessons Learned - https://youtu.be/Jmlg9NHhuPQ

Day 3 - Session Details and Slides

Session 5A: 5A Social and Economic Impacts - https://youtu.be/p3ilXZ7Gnxk

Session 5B: Coastal impacts & Vulnerability Brainstorming - https://youtu.be/rpND_yVdHp4

Session 6A1: Supplementals and JTTI - https://youtu.be/79n0RsntMQA

Session 6B: WPO Testbeds: H.O.T. - https://youtu.be/BeM3rDHZuic

Day 4 - Session Details and Slides

Session 7A: Developer Support and HPC - https://youtu.be/j7jWThFXa1w

Session 7B.1: HPC Future and Strategic Planning - https://youtu.be/xTDI1t06aaY

Session 7B.2: Strategic Goal Planning - https://youtu.be/HYI5Kme45z


Title Presenter Presentation
Day 1 - Tues 11/14
9:00 - 9:15am 2023 Annual Meeting Opening Aaron Poyer
9:15 - 11:00am 1A: Leadership Remarks and Updates Chair: Aaron Poyer
9:15 - 9:30am 1A.1: OSTI-Modeling Opening Remarks Kevin Garrett
9:30 - 9:45am 1A.2: NHC Remarks and Updates Mike Brennan / Jamie Rhome
9:45 - 10:00am 1A.3: EMC Remarks and Updates Vijay Tallapragada / Avichal Mehra
10:00 - 10:15am 1A.4: HRD Remarks and Updates Gopal / Frank Marks
10:15 - 11:00am 1A.5: A TC Career Retrospective Frank Marks
11:00 - 11:15am Break
11:15am - 1:00pm 1B: Forecaster Needs and Activities Supporting Operations Chairs: Jamie Rhome / Jessica Schauer
11:15 - 11:30am 1B.1: NHC season summary, analysis, and forecasting challenges Lisa Bucci
11:30 - 11:45am 1B.2: NHC Verification John Cangialosi
11:45am - 12:00pm 1B.3: NHC Technical Round Up Dave Zellinsky
12:00 - 12:15pm 1B.4: Operational storm surge modeling Andrew Penny/Laura Alaka
12:15 - 12:30pm 1B.5: WPC Rainfall/Flooding Jim Nelson
12:30 - 12:45pm 1B.6: Case Studies of HAFS-A Utility at JTWC Levi Cowan
12:45 - 1:00pm 1B.7: Discussion Q&A
1:00 - 2:00pm Lunch (On Site)
2:00 - 2:15pm Group Photo or Transition to Afternoon
2:15 - 4:00pm 2A: Challenging storm working group Chairs: Vijay Tallapragada / Jim Doyle
2:15 - 2:25pm 2A.1: Issues identified by NHC Forecasters Jamie Rhome
2:25 - 2:35pm 2A.2: EMC/HRD Developer identified HAFS challenges Zhan Zhang / Xuejin Zhang
2:35 - 2:45pm 2A.3: Updates from UKMO Julian Hemming
2:45 - 2:55pm 2A.4: Updates from ECMWF Linus Magnusson
2:55 - 3:05pm 2A.5: Updates from NCEP Vijay Tallapragada
3:05 - 3:15pm 2A.6: Update from NRL Jim Doyle
3:15 - 3:25pm 2A.7: Updates from DWD Michael Denhard
3:25 - 3:35pm 2A.8: Challenges in Ensembles Predictions of Genesis Sharan Majumdar
3:35 - 4:00pm 2A.9: Discussion Q&A
4:00 - 4:15pm Break
4:15 - 5:45pm 2B: Impact of Recon Data on TC Forecasts Chairs: Chris Landsea / Lisa Bucci
4:15 - 4:30pm 2B.1: Jason Sippel Jason Sippel
4:30 - 4:45pm 2B.2: Ryan Torn Ryan Torn
4:45 - 5:00pm 2B.3: Xingren Wu EMC (G-IV and Windborne Balloon) Xingren Wu
5:00 - 5:15pm 2B.4: Impact of UxS Data on TC Forecasts & Future CONOP Jason Sippel / Lisa Bucci
5:15 - 5:45pm 2B.5: Discussion/Q&A
5:45pm Adjourn Day 1
Day 2 - Wed 11/15
9:00 - 9:15am Opening Remarks
9:15 - 11:00am 3A: HAFS Implementation 23/24 Chairs: Avichal Mehra / Frank Marks
9:15 - 9:35am 3A.1: HAFS 20233 IOC Performance Zhan / Xuejin
9:35 - 9:45am 3A.2: HReX 1 Bin Liu (EMC)
9:45 - 9:55am 3A.3: HReX 2 Andy Hazelton (AOML)
9:55 - 10:05am 3A.4: HReX 3 Hyun-Sook Kim (AOML) & Lew Gramer
10:05 - 10:15am 3A.5: HReX 4 Joe Olson / Georg Grell GSL
10:15 - 10:25am 3A.6: HReX 5 Tim Marchok (GFDL)
10:25 - 10:40am 3A.7: HAFS Ensemble in the Cloud Raj Panda/Jiayi Peng (EMC)
10:40 - 11:00am 3A.8: Discussion/Q&A – Challenges from 2023 in moving into Operations
11:00 - 11:15am Break
11:15am - 12:15pm 3B: HFIP R2O & O2R Chairs: Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan / Aaron Poyer
11:15 - 11:30am 3B.1: Progress with Dynamics / Multiple Moving Nests Bill Ramstorm & Ghassan Alaka
11:30 - 11:45am 3B.2: Progress in Physics Fanglin Yang & Andrew Hazelton
11:45am - 12:00pm 3B.3: Progress in DA Jing Cheng & Younghui Weng
12:00 - 12:15pm 3B.4: Ocean Coupling and Waves Hyun-Sook Kim & Maria Aristizabal
12:15 - 1:30pm Lunch (on site)
1:30 - 1:45pm Group Photo or Transition to Afternoon
1:45 - 1:55pm Panelist Introductions
1:45 - 3:15pm 4A: Hurricane Observations Panel Chair: Joe Cione / Greg Foltz
1:45 - 1:55pm 4A.1: NHC & EMC Stephanie Stevenson/John Cangialosi
1:55 - 2:05pm 4A.2: AOML Jason Dunion, Heather Holbach or Rob Rogers
2:05 - 2:15pm 4A.3: HRD: showcase new tech, high res obs. Joe Cione
2:15 - 2:25pm 4A.4: NCAR George Bryan
2:25 - 2:35pm 4A.5: Navy Jim Doyle
2:35 - 2:45pm 4A.6: Ocean Greg Foltz (AOML) or Cheyenne Stienbarger (GOMO)
2:45 - 2:55pm 4A.7: Supporting the CHAOS Hurricane Field Campaign with GeoCollaborate Dave Jones, StormCenter Communications
2:55 - 3:15pm 4A.8: Discussion/Q&A
3:15 - 3:30pm Break
3:30 - 4:50pm 4B: DA and Impacts Chair: Jason Sippel / Daryl Kleist
3:30 - 3:45pm 4B.1: Background Avichal, Zhan, Xuejin
3:45 - 3:55pm 4B.2: EMC Global DA Daryl Kleist
3:55 - 4:05pm 4B.3: JCSDA JEDI Daryl Kleist
4:05 - 4:15pm 4B.4: RRFS DA Curtis Alexander
4:15 - 4:25pm 4B.5: HAFS DA (UMD) Jon Poterjoy
4:25 - 4:40pm 4B.6: HAFS DA Xuguang Wang
4:40 - 4:50pm 4B.7: Marine JEDI Hyun-Sook Kim
4:50 - 5:05pm Break
5:05 - 6:00pm 4C: Focused DA Discussion & Lessons Learned Chair: Daryl Kleist
6:00pm Adjourn Day 2
Day 3 - Thurs 11/16
8:30 - 8:45am Opening Remarks
8:45 - 10:30am 5A: Social and Economic Impacts Chairs: Aaron & Gopal
8:45 - 9:15am 5A.1: Hurricane Ian Social Science Studies Laura Myers & Chandra Clark
9:15 - 9:30am 5A.2: NWS/AFS: Integration of Trigangulated Social Science Recommendations Into Local Tropical Cyclone Products & Services Jessica Schauer
9:30 - 9:45am 5A.3: OAR/WPO: Leveraging Social Science to Improve Tropical Cyclone Risk Communication: A Journey Through Past, Present, and Future Social Science Research and Development Castle Willamsberg / Gina Eosco
9:45 - 10:00am 5A.4: OSTI - SBES Valerie Were
10:00 - 10:15am 5A.5: The Social Value of Forecasting Hurricanes Renato Molina (UM/RSMAS)
10:15 - 10:30am 5A.6: Panel Discussion NHC, AFS, OSTI, WPO
10:30 - 10:45am Break
10:45am - 12:30pm 5B: Coastal impacts & Vulnerability Brainstorming Chairs: Cody Fritz / Jamie Rhome
10:45 - 11:00am 5B.1: Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines Craig Setzer
11:00 - 11:10am 5B.2: University Research Dev Niyogi
11:10 - 11:20am 5B.3: NOS: An update on the NOAA National Ocean Service Storm Surge Modeling Team Research, research-to-operation and operational activities Saeed Moghimi
11:20 - 11:30am 5B.4: UFS Coastal Application Team perspective Shachak Pe’eri
11:30 - 11:40am 5B.5: Lee County Emergency Management Sandra Tapfumaneyi
11:40 - 11:50am 5B.6: FEMA Hurricane Liason Team Michael Spagnolo
11:50am - 12:00pm 5B.7: Dynamical Communication of Weather Risk: A User-Centered Design Approach Brian McNoldy
12:00 - 12:30pm 5B.8: Vulnerability Brainstorming NHC (Fritz), AFS (Schauer?), NOS, OWP, Presenters
12:30 - 1:45pm Lunch
1:45pm Transition to Afternoon
1:45 - 2:30pm 6A.1: Supplementals Chairs: Ben Woods / Chris Spells / Renee Richardson
1:45 - 1:50pm 6A.1A: Introduction/Background Session chairs split time
1:50 - 2:00pm 6A.1B: Ben Woods Ben Woods
2:00 - 2:10pm 6A.1C: Renee Richardson Keller Renee Richardson Keller
2:10 - 2:20pm 6A.1D: Chris Spells Chris Spells
2:20 - 2:30pm 6A.1E: Discussion/Q&A
2:30 - 3:45pm 6A.2: JTTI Program and Funded Projects Chair: Chandra Kondragunta
2:30 - 2:50pm 6A.2A: JTTI Programmatic Overview Chandra Kondeagunta
2:50 - 3:00pm 6A.2B: Galina Chirokova Galina Chirokova
3:00 - 3:10pm 6A.2C: Altug Aksoy Altug Aksoy
3:10 - 3:20pm 6A.2D: Zhaoxia Pu Zhaoxia Pu
3:20 - 3:30pm 6A.2E: Ping Zhu Ping Zhu
3:30 - 3:45pm 6A.2F: Discussion/Q&A
3:45 - 3:55pm Break
3:55 - 5:45pm 6B: WPO Testbeds: H.O.T. Chairs: Jordan Dale / Wallace Hogsett
3:55 - 4:10pm 6B.1: WPO Testbeds overview Jordan Dale
4:10 - 4:25pm 6B.2: NHC HOT overview Wallace Hogsetet & Jason Sippel (NHC/HRD)
4:25 - 4:40pm 6B.2A: NOFO 1 Jonathan Vigh
4:40 - 4:55pm 6B.2B: NOFO 2 Mark DeMaria
4:55 - 5:10pm 6B.2C: NOFO 3 Ryan Torn
5:10 - 5:25pm 6B.2D: NOFO 4 Sarah Ditchek
5:25 - 5:40pm 6B.2E Q&A/Discussion
5:45pm Adjourn Day 3
Day 4 - Fri 11/17
8:35 - 8:40am Opening Remarks
8:40 - 10:45am 7A: Developer Support and HPC Chairs: Avichal Mehra / Will Komaromi
8:40 - 9:00am 7A.1: DTC Support transition out Kathryn Newman
9:00 - 9:20am 7A.2: EPIC Support tranition in Maoyi Huang
9:20 - 9:40am 7A.3: Next Generation WSP Benefits and meeting critical needs Pablo Santos & Mark DeMaria
9:40 - 10:00am 7A.4 Physics across scales Mike Ek
10:00 - 10:30am 7A.5: R&D HPC Radhika Subramanian (DDir HPC) and Frank Indiviglio (CTO)
10:30 - 10:45am 7A.6: Discussion/Q&A
10:45 - 10:55am Break
10:55am - 1:30pm 7B: Future and Strategic Planning Chair: Aaron Poyer
11:00am - 11:50pm Discussion 1: Future plans for HPC: CTO Vision and User needs Frank Indivigilio, Radhika Subramanian
11:50am - 12:00pm Break
12:00 - 1:30pm Discussion 2: Strategic Goal Planning: 5-year (Required) and 10-year (Stretch) Strategy Ideas Frank Marks, Gopal
1:30pm Day 4 Adjourn