HFIP Annual 2023 Day 4 - Nov 17th 2023

Day 4 - HFIP Annual Session 7

Session 7 Summary & Key Ideas:

Developer Support Discussion: DTC has supported governance and support for transition from community model add-ons and upgrades into HAFS (previously HWRF). We are in the process of transitioning numerous HFIP and HAFS support activities from DTC to EPIC. EPIC will also support training tutorials, workshops and meetings.
NHC (Wallace Hogsett) update on NHC wind-speed probability model. New version will use full 2D vortex wind field, as opposed to climatological wind field. New version will also incorporate land surface model for wind reduction over land.
Mike Ek physics across scales - need to develop physics in a hierarchical development system, from single column and basic 2D simulations, to coarse simulations, to high resolution, to eventual very high resolution fully coupled simulations.

RDHPC presentations:Radhika: Plans are in place to bring aboard a new system to replace Jet with new Fairmont system. There have been recent upgrades to Gaea, and there is a planned upgrade to Hera in spring 2024. Additional funding for cloud computing will also be integral part of the path moving forward. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will support ~$190M in HPC infrastructure upgrades from FY23-25. There is an attempt in place to unify HPC platforms to expedite transition of code across platforms.
Avichal: we need to reduce the effort/FTE burden in running code across multiple platforms.
Indiviglio: Upcoming change in HPC landscape with machine learning and AI. GPUs present new opportunities to , but require some effort to adopt code and users to optimize their use. Increasing complexity porting across multiple machine platforms, including cloud computing. Shrinking compiler choices, growing software choices.

Future of HFIP and Strategic Planning: Need to establish new 2025 strategic plan with updated 5 and 10 year goals. First strategic plan was in 2009, last updated in 2019. Need clear goals, as was done in the past. Transition from GSI to JEDI will be a major step that we need to take. Improved probabilistic guidance, quantification of uncertainty. Can we better leverage reanalysis, or machine learning for this? Enhance communication, particularly with respect to risk uncertainty Need dedicated HPC support, and strategy for continued adoption of cloud. R2O enhancements and collaboration with HOT, DTC, EPIC, and UFS R2O. Broaden expertise and expand community, particularly through EPIC and UFS. Need to increase diversity in the models, particularly between HAFS-A and -B. Physics diversity helps, but also need diversity in the initial conditions. Need more focus on storm structure, particularly in terms of size of the wind field. Not only does a larger wind field impact a larger region, but it also is the main driver of storm surge. Why are there differences in model forecasts in large bust cases? For example, why was HAFS-B consistently better than HAFS-A for Philippe (2023)? Jason Sippel - what can the global system do to make our lives easier on the TC side? At which point does is the GFS cycling good enough that HAFS does not have to run its own cycling? 6-km resolution DA using JEDI is consistent with GFSv18 development ~5 years out. NHC would like to see us optimize and verify the wind speed probability thresholds. Need to make sure we get data into AWIPS. Need to think about physics issues, particularly in the “gray zone” for parameterized deep convection. NHC: top priority should be to make sure spread-error score is appropriately tuned for track and intensity at all lead times. Need to develop improved precipitation forecasts for TCs. Inland freshwater flooding is a major source of damage and loss of life. Need to verify probabilistic wind swath and probabilistic precipitation forecasts. Does a 40% chance of wind above X threshold or precipitation above Y threshold verify 40% of the time?
Frank Marks proposes that we create two new Tiger Teams One for HAFS DA JEDI transition team that develops an implementation plan and oversees progress and eventual transition. Target HAFSv3 FY25 transition, coincident with GFSv18. Jason Sippel Second team will address uncertainty. First develop a proof of concept, develop new probabilistic tools and products, and then calibrate and verify these products. Explore cost versus benefit of single-model versus multi-model ensemble. Leverage ML approaches, such as DESI and TCANE.
Aaron Poyer closing remarks: Last meeting of HEOB: Ken Graham and Steve Thur are both extremely supportive of HFIP past and future. Looking to getting additional SES representation at next year’s HFIP annual meeting. Dates TBD.
Offline closing discussion with Frank: we should continue to lean forward and propose an additional 50% improvement for track and intensity, including RI. HFIP has a history of success in meeting these goals, and these numbers tend to resonate with Congress. We may want to change the priory timeframe assigned to the goals from 48h to 72h, to better align with the actionable priorities outlined by the Lee County EM and FEMA talks.

Session 7A: Developer Support and HPC

Session 7B.1: HPC Future and Strategic Planning

Session 7B.2: Strategic Goal Planning