HFIP Annual 2023 Day 2 - Nov 15th 2023

Day 2 - HFIP Annual Sessions 3 and 4:

Session 3 Summary & Key Ideas:

Two versions of HAFS (A and B) transitioned to operations in June 2023. Three-year (2020-2022) retrospective evaluation demonstrated that HAFSv1 improved forecasts compared to legacy operational model HWRF. In 2023 hurricane season, HAFSv1 has further proved superior track and intensity forecast skills over HWRF, improved track forecast skills by more than 15% after day-2, and intensity forecast skills by ~10-20% after day-3 for storms in NHC AOR.

A number of HReX experiments were also supported by HFIP in 2023: HAFSv1.1A, HAFSV1.1B, HAFSv1.1D, MOM6-HAFS, GFS-GSL, and GFDL T-SHiELD. These experiments serve as a testing and proving ground for novel improvements to PLB, cumulus and microphysics parameterizations, advances in DA, and ocean coupling, amongst others, which are being considered for 2024 implementations. The HAFS Ensemble on the Cloud (HERC) experiment was also highly regarded by NHC, and much positive feedback was received with respect to the new probabilistic forecast guidance debuted as a part of HERC.

Session 3A: HAFS Implementation 23/24

Session 3B: HFIP R2O & O2R

Session 4A: Hurricane Observations Panel

Session 4B: DA and Impacts

Session 4C: Focused DA Discussion & Lessons Learned