2018 HFIP Annual Review Meeting

Nov 5, 2018, 2:00am - Nov 8, 2018, 1:59am ET

Overall Objectives

The new HFIP Strategic Plan detailing the specific research, development, and technology transfer activities necessary to sustain HFIP in response to Section 104 of the Weather Research Forecasting Innovation Act was approved by NOAA and awaits Congressional approval. The major goals of the act are planned to be addressed through the development of a multi-scale, multi-model system called Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS). The HAFS is NOAA's next-generation multi-scale numerical model and data assimilation package, which will provide an operational analysis and forecast out to seven days, with reliable and skillful guidance on Tropical Cyclone (TC) track and intensity (including rapid intensification), storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall and tornadoes associated with Tropical Cyclones within the framework of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) and its rolling three-year Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP). Central to the development of HAFS will be the FV3 dynamical core with embedded moving nest capable of tracking the inner core region of the hurricane at 1-2 km resolution.

The primary objective of this meeting will be to discuss the current state of operational hurricane capabilities and challenges, transition to the UFS-based FV3 system consistent with SIP with the development of HAFS, physics and DA advancements, set out NHC priorities, and build storm surge strategy. The results, accomplishments, and lessons learned from the 2018 hurricane season will be discussed allowing the development of a multi-year strategy for improving hurricane forecast guidance.


Title Presenter Presentation
10:30am Welcome remarks and Charge for the day Marks  
10:40am Updates from EMC Mehra  
11:00am Updates from GFDL Harris  
11:20am Updates from HRD Zhang  
11:40am Updates from ESRL/NSSL Alexander/Wicker  
12:00pm Updates from OU CAPS Xue
12:20pm FMS Overview and Nest Support Liang  
2:00pm HAFS task list  
11:00am FY18 NHC Verification Cangialosi
11:20am NHC's forecast challenges in 2018 Florence/Lane (Brennan/Blake)  
11:40am NHC’s view on developmental priorities Brennan/Blake
12:00pm 2018 Year in Review: JTWC TC Activity, Forecast Challenges, and Priorities Shieh  
1:00pm NHC’s perspective on priorities for the next generation hurricane model DeMaria  
1:20pm 2018 Hurricane Model Performance Liu
1:40pm EMC Hurricane model upgrades and priorities for 2019 Mehra
2:00pm COAMPS-TC FY18 Performance and FY18-FY19 Plans Doyle  
3:20pm HWRF driven by FV3GFS Thomas  
3:30pm Basin-scale HWRF Alaka  
3:40pm 3-km nested hfvGFS Hazelton  
3:50pm Global FV3 results Marchok  
4:00pm HWRF Ensemble Zhang  
4:10pm HMON Ensemble W. Wang  
4:20pm FV3GFS, C768 with DA cycle Grell  
4:30pm Analog Ensemble Lewis  
4:40pm Data Assimilation efforts X. Wang  
5:00pm Physics developments P. Zhu  
5:40pm DTC hurricane research activities Newman/Kalina
6:00pm Post-Processing and Verification Team Penny, Zelinsky  
6:20pm Ensemble Products Tiger Team Torn
6:40pm HFIP Metrics Franklin, Brennan, DeMaria  
11:00am Description of Goals and Status of HFIP Strategic Plan Marks  
11:20am Next Phase of HFIP – Realignment of base program strategy Toepfer  
11:49am Plans for Jet (HPC) and Research to Operations Tallapragada  
12:00pm Hurricane Supplemental Update Toepfer  
12:45pm Introduction: Development Plans and Science Priorities for 2019 Marks  
12:50pm HAFS developments out-brief from Day 1 workshop Gopal
1:15pm Physics priorities next 1-3 years Zhu  
1:35pm Data Assimilation advancements Sippel/Winterbottom  
3:20pm Current Operational status Fritz  
3:40pm Storm surge modeling gaps and priorities Alaka  
4:00pm 5-year plan and Long-term vision to advance storm surge modeling Upadhayay  
4:40pm Socio-economic WG status Sprague-Hilderbrand  
5:40pm Status of Tropical Program Schauer