2015 HFIP Annual Review Meeting

Nov 17, 2015, 2:00am - Nov 21, 2015, 1:59am ET

Embassy Suites Miami International Airport Hotel
3974 NW S. River Drive, Miami, FL 33142

Overall Objectives

The agenda will consist of three parts:

1. Ensemble Workshop (Nov 17)
2. Reports from each of the strategic and tiger teams on activities and results from 2015 and plans for 2016 and path forward (Nov 18)
3. Optional Python scripting tutorial for HWRF developers (Nov 19)

Ensemble Workshop: This scientific focus session on hurricane ensembles is relevant to the HFIP demo project with special attention given to ensembles of high-resolution regional models (Navy, NCEP, GFDL). Workshop topics include design and implementation of hurricane ensembles, ensemble post-processing techniques (weighted means, super-ensemble techniques), probabilistic forecasts, representation of uncertainty, use of ensembles in data assimilation, observation sensitivity experiments, single model vs. multimodel ensembles etc.

At NCEP operations, there is continued emphasis on the use of ensembles more so than we do today. Even after the HFIP workshop dedicated to the subject five or so years ago, we still don't have good, new ensemble techniques to improve deterministic forecasts. This was the opportunity to review the state-of-the-art in the science and application of hurricane ensembles, and discuss on prioritized development of new applications for effective use of ensemble products for operational needs at NHC. The goal of this workshop was to encourage more community involvement and come up with a set of recommendations for consideration by HFIP.

HFIP annual meeting: The HFIP program is guided by the advice of Strategic Planning teams and Tiger teams. The purpose of the HFIP Strategic Planning teams is to develop a multi-year (1-5 years) strategy for improving hurricane forecast guidance. The Tiger teams are responsible for overseeing the development of specific new capability for the hurricane forecast guidance system. Overall, the role of the team members is to ensure the HFIP plan represents an integrated plan across NOAA and involving the community outside NOAA and that it will lead meeting the overall HFIP goals. This meeting will provide updates from the various teams and also discuss on future NOAA strategy related to next generation model developments and its relevance to the hurricane problem. The HWRF tutorial was complementary to the annual meeting this year open to all HWRF developers interested in learning the recent advancements made to the HWRF system using Python scripts and Rocoto workflow.


Title Presenter Presentation
2:00 - 1:59am Workshop on Effective Use of Hurricane Ensembles
10:30am Welcome and Workshop Goals Frank Marks, Fuqing Zhang, Ryan Torn
10:30am NHC Perspective James Franklin
10:45am HFIP Dynamical Ensembles
10:45am HWRF Ensemble Prediction System and its Verification for 2015 Real time parallel experiment Zhan Zhang  
11:05am Evaluation of 2015 GFDL Hurricane Ensemble Matt Morin  
11:35am Performance of the 2015 real-time COAMPS-TC ensemble and combined COAMPS-TC/HWRF/GFDL multi-model ensemble Jon Moskaitis  
12:25pm FSU Multi-Model Ensemble Krish(?)
12:45pm HFIP Non-Dynamical Ensembles
12:45pm Development and performance of a statistical-dynamical ensemble technique for tropical cyclone intensity guidance Kate Musgrave  
1:05pm A hybrid statistical-dynamical approach to tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities Andrea Schumacher  
1:25pm Probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclone intensity change using an analog ensemble Chris Rozoff  
1:45pm NHC’s uses and needs for ensemble prediction systems Eric Blake  
3:30pm Ensemble generation: representation of IC and model errors
3:30pm Using Stochastic Ensembles to Better Understand Hurricane Predictability Falko Judt  
3:50pm Impact of Model Uncertainty on Hurricane Ensembles Carolyn Reynolds  
4:10pm A Multiple-Model Ensemble Examination of the Probabilistic Prediction of Hurricanes Sandy (2012), Edouard (2014), and Joaquin (2015) Christopher Melhauser  
4:30pm The ensemble Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Track in GEFS Kate Zhou  
4:50pm Storm-scale ensemble design: Model error representation with WRF-ARW for severe storm prediction Glen Romine  
5:30pm Ensemble Applications
5:30pm The ensemble forecast of Hurricane Isaac (2012) Hua Chen, Rogers  
5:50pm Application of HWRF ensemble forecasts for prediction and observation targeting Ryan Torn  
6:10 - 7:15pm Panel Discussion Panel Members: Altug Aksoy, Jun Du, James Franklin, Jon Moskatis, Jeff Whitaker, Zhan Zhang; Moderator: Fuqing Zhang
6:10pm How can we create more skillful EPSs?
2:00 - 1:59am Wednesday, November 18, 2015 Annual Meeting
10:30am Welcome, State of the Program Toepfer  
10:45am Summary of Ensemble workshop recommendations Torn, F. Zhang  
11:15am Preliminary FY15 verification Franklin  
11:35am HWRF in FY15 Zhan Zhang  
11:55am HWRF upgrades and priorities for 2016 at EMC Trahan  
12:15pm Long Range Plans Tallapragada  
1:00pm JTWC report Strahl  
1:20pm COAMPS-TC updates Doyle, Moskaitis  
3:15pm HFIP Team Reports
3:15pm Model Developments (Xuejin Zhang, Trahan) (Xuejin Zhang, Trahan  
3:15pm Web Page McCaslin, Kucera  
3:15pm Physics Strategy J.W.Bao, Abarca  
3:15pm Post Processing/verification DeMaria, Zelinisky, Marchok  
5:40pm DA/Initialization/Ensemble Development Whitaker, X.Wang  
5:40pm ATCF developments NRL Buck Sampson  
6:10pm Discussion on Focus topic: Ocean Impact Kim, Halliwell & Cione
6:10pm Ocean Model Impact Tiger Team (OMITT) - 1 Kim, Halliwell & Cione  
6:10pm Ocean Model Impact Tiger Team (OMITT) - 2 Kim, Halliwell & Cione  
7:10pm Team Reports (cont.)
7:10pm Recon Data Impact: TDR/Dropsonde DA Impacts for HWRF (Tong, Sippel) Recon Data Impact: TDR/Dropsonde DA Impacts for HWRF (Tong, Sippel)  
2:00 - 1:59am Thursday, November 19, 2015
10:30am Discussion on Genesis Product Chair: Tim Marchok
10:30am FSU Genesis Products Dan Halperin  
10:30am Proposal for a new tiger team on genesis prediction Pasch  
11:00am Team Reports (cont.) Chairs: Marks and Tallapragada
11:00am HFIP Socio-economic Working Group Sprague
11:25am DTC core activities Newman, Nance  
11:50am Satellite Data Assimilation Chair: Fuzhong Weng
11:50am HWRF Satellite DA progress and plans Fuzhong Weng
12:05pm All sky radiance assimilation overview Jeff Whitaker  
12:20pm Promises in assimilating all-sky radiances for future convection-permitting hurricane analysis and prediction Fuqing Zhang
12:35pm Discussion on Satellite Data Assimilation Fuzhong, Jeff and Fuqing
1:05pm NGGPS for hurricanes Toepfer, Marks and Tallapragada
1:30pm Continue Future Priorities for HFIP Gopal  
2:15pm HFIP Priorities Gopal  
2:15pm Day 2 Wrap Up and Next Steps Tallapragada