2021 HFIP Annual Meeting

HFIP 2021

Nov 15, 2021, 12:00pm - Nov 18, 2021, 5:00pm ET


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Meeting times: daily 12:00p-5:00p ET

Meeting Objectives

The primary objective of this meeting is to discuss the overall progress and accomplishments made under HFIP, focussed on development of the next generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) outlined in the 2019 HFIP Strategic plan with potential future steps. The current state of operational hurricane modeling capabilities and challenges, forecasters' needs and activities supporting operations as well as the results from the 2021 hurricane season will also be discussed.

Agenda Outline

Day 1 (Nov 15): Programmatic Updates; Forecaster needs and activities supporting operations.
Day 2 (Nov 16): Updates from Current Operational Forecast; Special Session on 2021 challenging cases; Socio-economic Session; Guest Talk. 
Day 3 (Nov 17): HFIP supported external research Reports.
Day 4 (Nov 18): Real-time experiment results; Observations for HAFS; HAFS developments and Future steps.


Title Presenter Presentation
12:00 - 5:00pm DAY 1: MONDAY NOV 15, 2021
12:00 - 12:10pm Welcome Remarks Jamese Sims
12:10 - 1:40pm Programmatic updates and Plans Chair: Vijay Tallapragada; Co-chair: S. Gopal
12:10 - 12:30pm HFIP Status and Plans Frank Marks  
12:30 - 12:50pm HFIP Programmatic Updates Youngsun Jung  
12:50 - 1:20pm Hurricane Supplemental Updates Jamese Sims  
1:20 - 1:40pm RDHPCS/Cloud Computing updates from OCIO Frank Indiviglio  
1:40 - 5:00pm Forecaster needs and Activities Supporting Operations Chair: Brian Zachry; Co-chair: Avichal Mehra
1:40 - 2:00pm Current forecast capabilities - NHC verification John Cangialosi  
2:00 - 2:20pm NHC’s analysis and forecasting challenges Mike Brennan  
2:20 - 2:40pm WPC rainfall forecast Jim Nelson  
2:40 - 3:00pm JTWC TC activity, forecast challenges, and priorities Levi Cowan  
3:30 - 5:00pm Forecaster needs and Activities Supporting Operations Chair: Michael Brennan; Co-chair: Youngsun Jung
3:30 - 3:50pm Verification of Rapid Intensification Metrics James Franklin  
3:50 - 4:10pm Operational applications including ensemble products Brian Zachry  
4:10 - 4:30pm Post Processing and Verification (PPAV) Team update David Zelinsky  
4:30 - 4:50pm Infrastructure: ATCF and AWIPS plans David Zelinksy  
4:50 - 5:10pm Operational storm surge modeling Andrew Penny/Laura Alaka  
12:00 - 5:00pm Day 2: Tuesday Nov 16, 2021
12:00 - 1:00pm Updates on Current Operational Model Chair: S. Gopal; Co-chair: Youngsun Jung
12:00 - 12:20pm Updates on Current Operational Regional Model Advances and plans Avichal Mehra  
12:20 - 12:40pm Updates on Global Model advances and plans Vijay Tallapragada  
12:40 - 1:00pm RDHPCS and Operational Computing activities and plans Vijay Tallapragada  
1:00 - 3:00pm Special session on 2021 Challenging Cases Chairs: Vijay Tallapragada and Frank Marks
1:00 - 1:10pm Overview of Modeling challenges: Issues identified by the forecasters (NHC/JTWC ) Mike Brennan and Levi Cowan  
1:10 - 1:20pm Overview of Modeling challenges: Issues identified by Modelers (EMC/HRD) Zhan Zhang and Gus Alaka  
1:20 - 3:00pm Difficult TC Cases Working Group Presentation Jim Doyle; Linus Magnusson; Julian Heming; Sharan Majumdar; Mike Brennan; Jon Moskaitis; Will Komaromi; Vijay Tallapragada  ,  ,  ,  
3:30 - 4:30pm Social, Behavioral and Economic Science (SBES) Research Chair: Frank Marks; Co-chair: Youngsun Jung
3:30 - 3:50pm Status of Tropical Program Jessica Schauer  
3:50 - 4:10pm Early findings from the FY18 SBES Hurricane Supplemental Projects Castle Williams, Gina Eosco, Jennifer Sprague-Hilderbrand and Valerie Were  
4:10 - 4:30pm Quantifying the economic benefits of the hurricane forecast program Renato Molina  
4:30 - 4:50pm Guest Talk: Storm Surge Modeling at NOS Saeed Moghimi; Soroosh Mani and Ed Myers  
12:00 - 5:00pm Day 3: Nov 17, 2021
12:00 - 1:40pm HFIP Funded (2018) External Research Reports Chair: Jamese Sims; Co-chair: Mike Brennan
12:00 - 12:20pm Using Dynamically-Based Probabilistic Forecast Systems to Improve the NHC Wind Speed Products Alan Brammer and Andrea Schumacher  
12:20 - 12:40pm New Frameworks for Predicting Extreme Rapid Intensification Chris Rozoff  
12:40 - 1:00pm Advanced DA Techniques for Satellite-Derived Atmos. Motion Vectors from GOES 16/17 in the HWRF Agnes Lim
1:00 - 1:20pm Rapid Intensification Changes: Improving Sub-Grid Scale Model Parameterization and Microphysical-Dynamical Interaction Ping Zhu
2:10 - 3:00pm HFIP Funded (NOFO) External Research Reports Chair: Youngsun Jung; Co-chair: Zhan Zhang
2:10 - 2:30pm Extending the Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index to Global Ensemble Forecasts Alan Brammer
2:30 - 2:50pm Developing regional ocean modeling capabilities with MOM6 for use in the Unified Forecast System Enrique Curchitser
2:50 - 3:10pm Application of Innovation Statistics to Diagnose Biases in the HAFS system Ryan Torn
3:10 - 3:30pm Evaluating Initial Condition Perturbation Methods in the HWRF Ensemble Prediction System Ryan Torn  
3:30 - 5:00pm HFIP Supported External Research Reports Chair: Avichal Mehra; Co-chair: S. Gopal
3:30 - 3:50pm Ground-based Radar DA in HWRF Hybrid Ensemble-variational Xuguang Wang
3:50 - 4:10pm FV3 Model and Ensemble-based DA for Convection-permitting Hurricane Analysis and Prediction Xingchao Chen  
4:10 - 4:30pm DTC Updates Kathryn Newman
4:30 - 4:50pm Display and Diagnostics Paul Kucera
12:00 - 5:00pm Day 4: Nov 18, 2021
12:00 - 1:15pm HFIP Real-time Experiment Chair: Vijay Tallapragada; Co-chair: Frank Marks
12:00 - 12:15pm Results from HAFS v0.2A Bin Liu  
12:15 - 12:30pm Results from HAFS v0.2B Andy Hazelton
12:30 - 12:45pm Results from HAFS v0.2D Li Bi  
12:45 - 1:00pm Results from HAFS v0.2E Zhan Zhang
1:00 - 1:15pm Results from T-SHiELD Morris Bender and Tim Marchok
1:15 - 1:30pm Results from GSL FV3 Experiments Georg Grell  
1:30 - 2:15pm Observations for HAFS Chair: Avichal Mehra; Co-chair: Jason Sippel
1:30 - 1:45pm Advancing Prediction of Hurricanes Experiment (APHEX) Jason Dunion  
1:45 - 2:00pm 2021 Ocean observing collaboration Gustavo Goni
2:00 - 2:15pm Extreme Events Ocean Observing Task Team (EEOOTT) Cheyenne Stienbarger  
2:30 - 5:00pm Discussion on HAFS Development Chairs: S. Gopal and Avichal Mehra
2:30 - 2:50pm HAFS configurations strategies and IOC Zhan Zhang  
2:50 - 3:10pm Grid and Nesting Developments Xuejin Zhang
3:10 - 3:30pm Physics Development Andy Hazelton and Chunxi Zhang
3:30 - 3:50pm DA Advancements and Use of observations Jason Sippel and Zhan Zhang
3:50 - 4:10pm Coupling Strategies for HAFS Avichal Mehra and Dan Rosen
4:10 - 4:30pm CAM FV3 testing Curtis Alexander
4:30 - 4:50pm HAFS Code Management and Community Engagement Evan Kalina/ Bin Liu
4:50 - 5:00pm Meeting Summary, Next Steps and Concluding Remarks Frank Marks  
4:10 - 5:00pm Impact of Recon Data on TC Forecasts