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12:00 - 5:00pm
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DAY 1: MONDAY NOV 15, 2021
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12:00 - 12:10pm
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Welcome Remarks
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Jamese Sims
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12:10 - 1:40pm
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Programmatic updates and Plans
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Chair: Vijay Tallapragada; Co-chair: S. Gopal
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12:10 - 12:30pm
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HFIP Status and Plans
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Frank Marks
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12:30 - 12:50pm
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HFIP Programmatic Updates
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Youngsun Jung
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12:50 - 1:20pm
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Hurricane Supplemental Updates
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Jamese Sims
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1:20 - 1:40pm
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RDHPCS/Cloud Computing updates from OCIO
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Frank Indiviglio
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1:40 - 5:00pm
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Forecaster needs and Activities Supporting Operations
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Chair: Brian Zachry; Co-chair: Avichal Mehra
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1:40 - 2:00pm
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Current forecast capabilities - NHC verification
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John Cangialosi
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2:00 - 2:20pm
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NHC’s analysis and forecasting challenges
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Mike Brennan
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2:20 - 2:40pm
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WPC rainfall forecast
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Jim Nelson
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2:40 - 3:00pm
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JTWC TC activity, forecast challenges, and priorities
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Levi Cowan
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3:30 - 5:00pm
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Forecaster needs and Activities Supporting Operations
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Chair: Michael Brennan; Co-chair: Youngsun Jung
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3:30 - 3:50pm
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Verification of Rapid Intensification Metrics
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James Franklin
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3:50 - 4:10pm
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Operational applications including ensemble products
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Brian Zachry
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4:10 - 4:30pm
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Post Processing and Verification (PPAV) Team update
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David Zelinsky
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4:30 - 4:50pm
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Infrastructure: ATCF and AWIPS plans
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David Zelinksy
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4:50 - 5:10pm
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Operational storm surge modeling
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Andrew Penny/Laura Alaka
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12:00 - 5:00pm
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Day 2: Tuesday Nov 16, 2021
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12:00 - 1:00pm
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Updates on Current Operational Model
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Chair: S. Gopal; Co-chair: Youngsun Jung
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12:00 - 12:20pm
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Updates on Current Operational Regional Model Advances and plans
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Avichal Mehra
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12:20 - 12:40pm
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Updates on Global Model advances and plans
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Vijay Tallapragada
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12:40 - 1:00pm
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RDHPCS and Operational Computing activities and plans
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Vijay Tallapragada
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1:00 - 3:00pm
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Special session on 2021 Challenging Cases
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Chairs: Vijay Tallapragada and Frank Marks
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1:00 - 1:10pm
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Overview of Modeling challenges: Issues identified by the forecasters (NHC/JTWC )
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Mike Brennan and Levi Cowan
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1:10 - 1:20pm
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Overview of Modeling challenges: Issues identified by Modelers (EMC/HRD)
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Zhan Zhang and Gus Alaka
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1:20 - 3:00pm
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Difficult TC Cases Working Group Presentation
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Jim Doyle; Linus Magnusson; Julian Heming; Sharan Majumdar; Mike Brennan; Jon Moskaitis; Will Komaromi; Vijay Tallapragada
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, , ,
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3:30 - 4:30pm
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Social, Behavioral and Economic Science (SBES) Research
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Chair: Frank Marks; Co-chair: Youngsun Jung
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3:30 - 3:50pm
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Status of Tropical Program
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Jessica Schauer
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3:50 - 4:10pm
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Early findings from the FY18 SBES Hurricane Supplemental Projects
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Castle Williams, Gina Eosco, Jennifer Sprague-Hilderbrand and Valerie Were
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4:10 - 4:30pm
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Quantifying the economic benefits of the hurricane forecast program
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Renato Molina
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4:30 - 4:50pm
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Guest Talk: Storm Surge Modeling at NOS
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Saeed Moghimi; Soroosh Mani and Ed Myers
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12:00 - 5:00pm
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Day 3: Nov 17, 2021
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12:00 - 1:40pm
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HFIP Funded (2018) External Research Reports
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Chair: Jamese Sims; Co-chair: Mike Brennan
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12:00 - 12:20pm
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Using Dynamically-Based Probabilistic Forecast Systems to Improve the NHC Wind Speed Products
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Alan Brammer and Andrea Schumacher
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12:20 - 12:40pm
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New Frameworks for Predicting Extreme Rapid Intensification
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Chris Rozoff
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12:40 - 1:00pm
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Advanced DA Techniques for Satellite-Derived Atmos. Motion Vectors from GOES 16/17 in the HWRF
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Agnes Lim
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1:00 - 1:20pm
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Rapid Intensification Changes: Improving Sub-Grid Scale Model Parameterization and Microphysical-Dynamical Interaction
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Ping Zhu
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2:10 - 3:00pm
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HFIP Funded (NOFO) External Research Reports
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Chair: Youngsun Jung; Co-chair: Zhan Zhang
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2:10 - 2:30pm
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Extending the Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index to Global Ensemble Forecasts
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Alan Brammer
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2:30 - 2:50pm
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Developing regional ocean modeling capabilities with MOM6 for use in the Unified Forecast System
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Enrique Curchitser
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2:50 - 3:10pm
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Application of Innovation Statistics to Diagnose Biases in the HAFS system
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Ryan Torn
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3:10 - 3:30pm
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Evaluating Initial Condition Perturbation Methods in the HWRF Ensemble Prediction System
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Ryan Torn
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3:30 - 5:00pm
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HFIP Supported External Research Reports
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Chair: Avichal Mehra; Co-chair: S. Gopal
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3:30 - 3:50pm
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Ground-based Radar DA in HWRF Hybrid Ensemble-variational
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Xuguang Wang
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3:50 - 4:10pm
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FV3 Model and Ensemble-based DA for Convection-permitting Hurricane Analysis and Prediction
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Xingchao Chen
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4:10 - 4:30pm
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DTC Updates
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Kathryn Newman
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4:30 - 4:50pm
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Display and Diagnostics
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Paul Kucera
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12:00 - 5:00pm
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Day 4: Nov 18, 2021
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12:00 - 1:15pm
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HFIP Real-time Experiment
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Chair: Vijay Tallapragada; Co-chair: Frank Marks
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12:00 - 12:15pm
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Results from HAFS v0.2A
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Bin Liu
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12:15 - 12:30pm
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Results from HAFS v0.2B
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Andy Hazelton
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12:30 - 12:45pm
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Results from HAFS v0.2D
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Li Bi
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12:45 - 1:00pm
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Results from HAFS v0.2E
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Zhan Zhang
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1:00 - 1:15pm
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Results from T-SHiELD
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Morris Bender and Tim Marchok
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1:15 - 1:30pm
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Results from GSL FV3 Experiments
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Georg Grell
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1:30 - 2:15pm
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Observations for HAFS
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Chair: Avichal Mehra; Co-chair: Jason Sippel
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1:30 - 1:45pm
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Advancing Prediction of Hurricanes Experiment (APHEX)
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Jason Dunion
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1:45 - 2:00pm
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2021 Ocean observing collaboration
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Gustavo Goni
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2:00 - 2:15pm
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Extreme Events Ocean Observing Task Team (EEOOTT)
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Cheyenne Stienbarger
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2:30 - 5:00pm
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Discussion on HAFS Development
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Chairs: S. Gopal and Avichal Mehra
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2:30 - 2:50pm
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HAFS configurations strategies and IOC
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Zhan Zhang
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2:50 - 3:10pm
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Grid and Nesting Developments
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Xuejin Zhang
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3:10 - 3:30pm
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Physics Development
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Andy Hazelton and Chunxi Zhang
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3:30 - 3:50pm
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DA Advancements and Use of observations
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Jason Sippel and Zhan Zhang
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3:50 - 4:10pm
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Coupling Strategies for HAFS
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Avichal Mehra and Dan Rosen
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4:10 - 4:30pm
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CAM FV3 testing
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Curtis Alexander
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4:30 - 4:50pm
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HAFS Code Management and Community Engagement
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Evan Kalina/ Bin Liu
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4:50 - 5:00pm
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Meeting Summary, Next Steps and Concluding Remarks
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Frank Marks
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4:10 - 5:00pm
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Impact of Recon Data on TC Forecasts
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