2019 HFIP Annual Meeting

Nov 4, 2019, 2:00am - Nov 7, 2019, 1:59am ET

Key Biscayne Meeting Room at the Embassy Suites Airport
Miami International Airport, Florida

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The primary objective of this meeting was to discuss the key HFIP strategies as listed in the HFIP document, including developing the next generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), which can provide an operational analysis and forecast out to seven days, with reliable and skillful guidance on TC track and intensity (including rapid intensification), storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall and tornadoes associated with TCs. The current state of operational hurricane capabilities and challenges, as well as the results and accomplishments from the 2019 hurricane season, were also discussed, allowing development of future plans to further improve hurricane forecast guidance in the upcoming years.


Title Presenter Presentation
3:10pm Programmatic updates and Operational Modeling Session (Chair: Frank Marks) Chair: Frank Marks
3:10pm Update on HFIP/Weather Act: status and goals Marks  
3:30pm Longer-term programmatic outlook, plans and budget Koch  
3:50pm Forecaster needs and Activities Supporting Operations Chair: Ed Rappaport
3:50pm 2019 Year in Review: Joint Typhoon Warning Center TC activity, forecast challenges, and priorities Belson  
4:10pm Current forecast capabilities - NHC Verification Cangialosi  
4:30pm NHC’s analysis and forecasting challenges Brennan/Blake  
5:10pm Operational applications including ensemble products Franklin/DeMaria  
5:30pm Post Processing and Verification (PPAV) Team Update Zelinsky  
5:50pm Infrastructure: ATCF and AWIPS plans DeMaria  
6:10pm Operational storm surge Modeling Alaka/Penny  
6:30pm Status of socio-economic projects Sprague-Hilderband  
2:00 - 1:59am DAY TWO (TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 5)
11:00am Establishing the Programmatic Metric(s) for Rapid Intensification (RI) Moderator: Gopal
11:00am Background and Introduce proposed metrics DeMaria/Franklin  
11:20am Open Discussion: Reaching consensus on metric(s) sampling  
11:40am Expert Panel: Modeling implications Panelist: Frank Marks, Vijay Tallapragada, Ryan Torn, Jim Doyle  
11:40am RI measuring techniques  
11:40am Model Skills in predicting RI  
12:40pm Updates on Modeling plans, computing and Supplemental Chair: Gopal
12:40pm Global Model advances and plans for 2020 and beyond Tallapragada  
1:00pm Regional Model advances and plans for 2020 and beyond Mehra  
1:20pm RDHPCS Computing Tallapragada  
1:40pm Hurricane Supplemental 2019 Update Koch  
3:00pm Ongoing Efforts to build Next Generation Hurricane Model Chair: Tallapragada
3:00pm Results and ongoing efforts from HAFS v0.A Liu/J. Dong  
3:20pm Results and ongoing efforts from HAFS v0.B Hazelton/Z. Zhang  
3:40pm Results from FV3SAR testing Alexander  
4:00pm Progress in Grid and Nesting development X. Zhang and Harris  
4:20pm Physics Priorities C. Zhang/Wang  
5:00pm DA Advancements and Use of observations Sippel  
5:20pm Hurricane Field Program updates and Use of observations Zawislak  
5:40pm CROW Workflow Kalina  
6:00pm CIME Workflow and repository Dunlap/Turuncoglu  
6:20pm Coupling Strategies Mehra  
6:20pm JTWC Belson  
6:20pm HRD Hazelton/Alaka  
6:30pm Special session on operational model problems in 2019, causes, potential solutions Tallapragada
6:40pm Overview of Operational and Modeling challenges with major storms from the Centers (2-3 slides from each center
6:40pm NHC Brennan  
6:40pm NCEP, ECMWF, UK Met, Navy Tallapragada  
11:00am Using Dynamically-Based Probabilistic Forecast Systems to Improve the NHC Wind Speed Products Schumacher/Brammer  
11:00am HFIP Supported External Research Reports Chair: Koch
11:10am New Frameworks for Predicting Extreme Rapid Intensification Emanuel/Vigh  
11:20am Rapid Intensification Changes: Improving Sub-Grid Scale Model Parameterization and Microphysical-Dynamical Interaction Zhu
11:30am valuating Initial Condition Perturbation Methods in the HWRF Ensemble Prediction System Torn
11:40am Enabling Cloud Condensate Cycling for All-Sky Radiance Assimilation in HWRF T-C Wu
11:50am Display and Diagnostics Kucera/Burek  
12:00pm DTC Updates Newman  
12:30pm Results of Real-time reservation Experiments Chair: Mehra
12:30pm Basin-Scale HWRF-B Alaka/Thomas  
12:40pm HWRF Ensemble Z. Zhang  
12:50pm HMON ensemble Wang  
1:00pm HWRF with No Vortex Initialization Kalina  
1:10pm Analog Ensemble Rozoff/Lewis  
1:20pm Summary and Concluding Remarks Marks  
2:30 - 7:00pm HAFS Developer's meeting - Next steps for HAFS
2:30pm Charge for this session Mehra/Gopal  
2:40pm Configuration Strategy Mehra/Gopal
2:40pm Lessons from HAFS v0.A and HAFS v0.B
2:40pm Plans to configure test and validate single storm HAFS v0.1
3:15pm Code repository management and Test plan Strategies Alexander/Marchok
3:15pm Code repository and support  
3:15pm Develop HAFS evaluation diagnostics (storm tracker on native grid and tracker for products)  
3:15pm Real-time/retrospective testing at various stages
4:00pm Nesting Strategy and Timeline (X. Zhang/Harris
4:00pm Develop pre-processing tools supporting multi-level nesting  
4:00pm Schedule for developing algorithms for telescopic nests in FV3  
4:00pm Code next moving algorithm crossing the faces of the cubed sphere edges
4:00pm Modify FMS code to implement the crossing edge algorithm - challenges / timelines
5:00pm Physics Strategy Tallapragada
5:00pm HWRF Physics; other physics options
5:00pm Connection to CCPP  
5:00pm Coupling to ocean (HYCOM and MOM6); Coupling to waves  
5:45pm Initialization/DA Strategies Marks/Winterbottom
5:45pm Inner core DA developments
5:45pm DA using the JEDI framework
5:45pm Options for Vortex Initialization/Relocation