2017 November HFIP Annual Review Meeting

Nov 8, 2017, 2:00am - Nov 10, 2017, 1:59am ET

DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel Miami Airport & Convention Center
Miami, FL

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Overall Objectives

In 2017, the signed Weather Act requires the development of a new HFIP project plan due in April 2018. The Weather Act states three main goals: (1) improving the prediction of RI and track of hurricanes; (2) improving the forecast and communication of storm surges from hurricanes; and (3) incorporating risk communication research to create more effective watch and warning products. The objective of this meeting was to discuss the proposed revisions of the current HFIP goals and review the initial draft of the plan. The HFIP Plan represents an integrated plan across NOAA and involvement from the community outside NOAA which will lead to achieving the overall goals.

Over the years, the HFIP program has been guided with the advice of Strategic Planning teams and Tiger teams. The results, accomplishments, and lessons learned of the HFIP teams have allowed for development of a multi-year strategy for improving hurricane forecast guidance. The Tiger teams primarily are responsible for overseeing the development of specific new capability for the hurricane forecast guidance system. This meeting will provide updates from the various teams and discuss the NOAA strategy related to the Next Generation Global Prediction System developments and the strategy to address the hurricane problem.

The meeting is planned for this location: DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel Miami Airport & Convention Center


Title Presenter Presentation
2:00 - 1:59am Wednesday, November 8, 2017
10:50am Results from 2017 DeMaria
10:50am FY17 NHC Verification Cangialosi  
11:10am NHC's forecast challenges in 2017 – Harvey/Irma/Maria Brennan/Blake  
11:30am NHC’s view on developmental priorities Brennan/Blake
11:50am 2017 Year in Review: JTWC TC Activity, Forecast Challenges, and Developmental Priorities Strahl  
12:10pm Open Discussion on Best Practices and lessons learned for 2017
12:45pm Operational Modeling Center Reports (Stream 1) Chair: Gopal
12:45pm HWRF FY17 Performance Bin Lui  
1:05pm EMC Hurricane model upgrades and priorities for 2018 Mehra  
1:25pm COAMPS-TC FY17 Performance and FY18-FY19 Plans Doyle  
1:45pm Results from Jet: Real-time Reservations (Stream 2)
1:45pm Performance of Ensembles and Future Plans W. Wang, Komaromi  
2:00pm Basin-scale HWRF realtime results Alaka  
2:15pm FV3 realtime results Bender  
3:20pm HFIP Strategic and Tiger Team Reports Chair: Mehra
3:25pm Plans for Hurricanes in FV3 Tallapragada  
3:40pm Model Developments and Priorities X. Zhang  
4:00pm HWRF Data Assimilation Sippel  
4:15pm Data Assimilation/Ensemble Development X.Wang  
4:35pm Socioeconomic Team Sprague  
4:50pm Post Processing/Verification - incl. HCCA results Zelinsky, DeMaria, Penny  
5:10pm ATCF and AWIPS-2 developments DeMaria, Sampson  
5:40pm Tiger Teams – (Chair: Gopal)
5:40pm DTC core activities Newman, Nance  
6:00pm Ensemble Products Tiger Team DeMaria  
6:20pm Hi-Res Physics Tiger Team L. Zhu  
6:40pm Ocean Model Impact Tiger Team Kim, Halliwell  
2:00 - 1:59am Thursday, November 9, 2017
11:00am Next Phase of HFIP – What Did HFIP Do Well? What’s Next? Toepfer  
11:20am Description of Goals Marks  
11:40am Outbrief from Writing Team Status on Plan Section leads  
12:00pm Open Discussion on Priorities Chair: Marks
12:00pm Rapid Intensification Kaplan, DeMaria  
12:00pm Hurricane Impacts Sprague)  
12:00pm Performance Measures Brennan, DeMaria  
12:30pm Research and development HPC Toepfer/VIjay  
12:30pm High resolution nests into the global system Tallapragada
12:30pm Ensembles for impacts from rain, gusts, surge, and severe wx DeMaria  
12:30pm Focus on weak systems and invests Marchok  
12:30pm Data Assimilation/Initialization Sippel  
12:30pm Observational requirements Rogers/Brennan  
3:30pm Storm Surge Chair: Kurkowski
3:35pm Current State of Operations Fritz  
4:05pm Status of Tropical Program Schauer  
4:30pm NOAA storm surge modeling gaps and priorities Paulik  
5:00pm Short-term plan to advance storm surge modeling Kurkowski  
5:50pm Long-term vision for NOAA storm surge to meet operational needs and requirements of the Weather Act Kurkowski