HFIP Real-Time Experimental Forecast System for 2011

Apr 14, 2011, 10:30am - 7:00pm ET

SSMC2 14316
1325 East West Hwy, Silver Spring, MD


We need to have a discussion of the target system we want to run next summer that we will run on t-jet as part of the demo system and stream 1.5.

In general the system this summer should consist of a global ensemble and a regional ensemble (each could have more than one core) with the number of members and resolution TBD. Beyond that we need to see what will fit, what will be ready to go by next summer and what makes sense. As close as possible this should be a stream 1.5 activity though that isn't a requirement.

For the format of the meeting I suggest that the various organizations planning or proposing to run in real-time present their proposal to the group for discussion. This presentation should include detail of the model, initialization and planned post processing/products. They will also need to present detailed estimates of the computing resource requirement (# of cores and run time), when the components are proposed to be run and if the core requirements change during the run (for example if the requirement is different for initialization vs the forecast).

We also plan a presentation on the t-jet resource, how the real-time runs will be managed and options for expanding the HFIP computing resource in Boulder. We will also give an opportunity for NHC to indicate their preferences for what they would like to see run on the HFIP computing system and for products from that system.

There will be ample time for discussion and a goal of the workshop will be a reasonably detailed plan on what will be run, how it will be managed and when the various components will be run (for example, what happens when there is more than one storm, what happens when there are none).

A rough schedule for the meeting is shown below.

I will present a preliminary proposal for the makeup of the real-time t-jet system and during general discussion that plan will be modified and tuned.

The goal of the meeting is to come to agreement on the 2011 real-time system recognizing that there may need to be some later modifications as new information becomes available.


Title Presenter Presentation
10:30am - 5:00pm Thursday April 14, 2011
10:30am Welcome, overall objectives/goals for t-jet Bob Gall  
11:00am Goals of workshop/a tentative proposal Bob Gall
11:30am MMM Proposal for real-time runs in 2011 hurricane season Ryan Torn  
12:00pm The t-jet system/ real-time management, options for enlarging the HFIP computing system. Craig Tierney  
1:00pm ESRL Proposal for real-time runs in 2011 hurricane season Jeff Whittaker  
1:30pm EMC Proposal for real-time runs in 2011 hurricane season (beyond the operational models) Vijay  
3:00pm AOML Proposal for real-time runs in 2011 hurricane season Frank Marks  
3:30pm NRL Proposal for real-time runs in 2011 hurricane season Alex Reinecke  
4:00pm PSU Proposal for real-time runs in 2011 hurricane season Fuqing Zhang & Yonghui Weng  
4:15pm GFDL Proposal for real-time runs in 2011 hurricane season Tim Marchok  
4:30pm Begin general discussion of HFIP 2011 real-time system Lead: Gall

- Start with Gall preliminary proposal and iterate
- Consider:
o Systems that are likely to be part of the
2012 experimental forecast system
o Cost (we need firm estimates of runtimes
and core requirements of individual
proposed components)
o Scheduling
What do we do when there are multiple
Which models should run first if they have
to be run sequentially
- Which components will be stream 1.5 candidates
o Scheduling retro runs and analysis