Overall Objectives
The agenda will consist of three parts:
1. Ensemble Workshop (Nov 17)
2. Reports from each of the strategic and tiger teams on activities and results from 2015 and plans for 2016 and path forward (Nov 18)
3. Optional Python scripting tutorial for HWRF developers (Nov 19)
Ensemble Workshop: This scientific focus session on hurricane ensembles is relevant to the HFIP demo project with special attention given to ensembles of high-resolution regional models (Navy, NCEP, GFDL). Workshop topics include design and implementation of hurricane ensembles, ensemble post-processing techniques (weighted means, super-ensemble techniques), probabilistic forecasts, representation of uncertainty, use of ensembles in data assimilation, observation sensitivity experiments, single model vs. multimodel ensembles etc.
At NCEP operations, there is continued emphasis on the use of ensembles more so than we do today. Even after the HFIP workshop dedicated to the subject five or so years ago, we still don't have good, new ensemble techniques to improve deterministic forecasts. This was the opportunity to review the state-of-the-art in the science and application of hurricane ensembles, and discuss on prioritized development of new applications for effective use of ensemble products for operational needs at NHC. The goal of this workshop was to encourage more community involvement and come up with a set of recommendations for consideration by HFIP.
HFIP annual meeting: The HFIP program is guided by the advice of Strategic Planning teams and Tiger teams. The purpose of the HFIP Strategic Planning teams is to develop a multi-year (1-5 years) strategy for improving hurricane forecast guidance. The Tiger teams are responsible for overseeing the development of specific new capability for the hurricane forecast guidance system. Overall, the role of the team members is to ensure the HFIP plan represents an integrated plan across NOAA and involving the community outside NOAA and that it will lead meeting the overall HFIP goals. This meeting will provide updates from the various teams and also discuss on future NOAA strategy related to next generation model developments and its relevance to the hurricane problem. The HWRF tutorial was complementary to the annual meeting this year open to all HWRF developers interested in learning the recent advancements made to the HWRF system using Python scripts and Rocoto workflow.