|12:00 - 1:00pm||
HFIP Special Seminar (abstract)
Traditional approaches to making and assessing the skill of tropical cyclone forecasts have focused on the track and intensity of the storm. This approach suffers two important drawbacks: First, the intensity depends on the track -- sometimes very sensitively -- so the two metrics are hardly independent. Second, neither quantity directly addresses the risk that most people are concerned about... the probability of TC-related hazards at their particular location. For this reason, we advocate moving away from the track-intensity axis to making and judging the skill of pointwise probabilistic forecasts of tropical cyclone hazards. To accomplish this it will be necessary to run very large ensembles. I will review a technique developed by Jonathan Lin and myself to bootstrap the GFS and/or ECMWF TC ensemble forecasts to 1,000 members and to use these large ensembles to make pointwise probabilistic wind forecasts. I will also present verification statistics, including statistics on predictions of rapid intensification, and present plans for enhancing the method to include surge and freshwater flooding.
|Dr. Kerry Emanuel, MIT|
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