2020 HFIP Annual Meeting

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2020 virtual annual meeting

Nov 17, 2020, 12:00pm - Nov 19, 2020, 5:00pm ET

Virtual Meeting

Objective

The primary objective of this meeting was to discuss the key HFIP strategies as documented in the HFIP Strategic plans including development of the next generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) within UFS. The current state of operational hurricane modeling capabilities and challenges, forecasters' needs and activities supporting operations as well as the results and accomplishments from the 2020 hurricane season will be discussed.

Outline

  • Day 1 (Nov 17): Programmatic Updates; Forecaster needs and activities supporting operations.
  • Day 2 (Nov 18): Updates from Current Operational Forecast; HFIP Stream 2 results; Special storm session.
  • Day 3 (Nov 19): HFIP Supported External Research; HAFS Development and Computations.

HFIP Display Survey Link

Agenda

Title Presenter Presentation
Day 1 - Tuesday, November 17, 2020
Welcome Remarks Dorothy Koch  
Programmatic updates Chair: Frank Marks; Co-chair: Vijay Tallapragada
HFIP Goals and Status Frank Marks  
HFIP Programmatic Updates, Plans and Budget Youngsun Jung  
Hurricane Supplemental Updates Dorothy Koch  
Forecaster needs and Activities Supporting Operations Chair: Ed Rappaport; Co-chair: Brian Zachry
Current forecast capabilities - NHC verification John Cangialosi/Mike Brennan  
NHC’s analysis and forecasting challenges Mike Brennan/Eric Blake  
Verification of RI Metrics in 2020 James Franklin/Mark Demaria/Matt Onderlinde  
Operational applications including ensemble products Brian Zachry/Franklin/DeMaria  
JTWC TC activity, forecast challenges, and priorities Matt Kucas  
Post Processing and Verification (PPAV) Team update David Zelinsky  
Infrastructure: ATCF and AWIPS plans Mark DeMaria  
Operational storm surge modeling Andrew Penny/Laura Alaka  
Status of socio-economic projects Jennifer Sprague-Hilderband  
HFIP Display - A need for Unified System Youngsun Jung & Jordan Dale  
Day 2 - Wednesday, November 18, 2020
Updates on Current Operational Model Chair: S. Gopal, Co-chair: Youngsun Jung
Current Operational Regional Model Advances and plans (Avichal Mehra)  
Global Model advances and plans Vijay Tallapragada  
RDHPCS Computing Vijay Tallapragada  
HFIP Real-time reservation Experiment Chair: Avichal Mehra; Co-chair: S. Gopal
Results from HAFS v0.1A Bin Liu  
Results from HAFS v0.1B Andy Hazelton  
Results from HAFS v0.1 Jili Dong  
Results from HAFS v0.1E Zhan Zhang  
Basin Scale HWRF-B Gus Alaka  
GFS CAM Physics Georg Grell  
HWRF CNN Jonathan Lin  
Special session on Operational Modeling Challenges in 2020 (eg. ensembles; DA; RI) Chair: Vijay Tallapragada; Co-chair: Frank Marks
Overview of Modeling challenges
Issues identified by the forecasters (NHC/JTWC Mike Brennan/Matt Kucas  
Issues identified by Modelers EMC/HRD - Zhan Zhang/Gus Alaka  
Panel Presentation-1 Heming  
Panel Presentation-2 Magnussen  
Panel Presentation-3 Doyle  
Panel Presentation-4 Tallapragada  
Panel/Audience Q&A.
Day 3 Thursday, November 19, 2020
HFIP (FFO) Funded External Research Reports Chair: Dorothy Koch; Co-chair: Mark Demaria
Using Dynamically-Based Probabilistic Forecast Systems to Improve the NHC Wind Speed Products Alan Brammer/Andrea Schumacher  
New Frameworks for Predicting Extreme Rapid Intensification Jonathan Vigh  
Rapid Intensification Changes: Improving Sub-Grid Scale Model Parameterization and Microphysical-Dynamical Interaction Ping Zhu  
Evaluating Initial Condition Perturbation Methods in the HWRF Ensemble Prediction System Ryan Torn  
Advanced DA Techniques for Satellite-Derived Atmos. Motion Vectors from GOES 16/17 in the HWRF Agnes Lim  
Enabling Cloud Condensate Cycling for All-Sky Radiance Assimilation in HWRF Lewis Grasso  
HFIP Supported External Research Reports Chair: Youngsun Jung; Co-chair: Vijay Tallapragada
Ground-based Radar DA in HWRF Hybrid Ensemble-variational Xuguang Wang  
DTC Updates Kathryn Newman/Bin Liu  
HAFS Development and Computations Chairs: Avichal Mehra and S. Gopal
HAFS Configuration Strategies Avichal Mehra  
Grid and Nesting Developments (Xuejin Zhang)  
T-Shield Morris Bender/Tim Marchok  
LAM FV3 testing Curtis Alexander  
Development of Coupling Strategies for HAFS Avichal Mehra/ Dan Rosen  
Physics Priorities Chunxi Zhang  
CCPP Physics suite options for HAFS Man Zhang/Mrinal Biswas  
DA Advancements and Use of observations Jason Sippel/Zhan Zhang  
HAFS Workflow Evan Kalina  
HAFS Computations S. Gopal/Frank Indiviglio/Vijay Tallapragada/Gus Alaka