2020 HFIP Annual Meeting

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2020 virtual annual meeting

Nov 17, 2020, 12:00pm - Nov 19, 2020, 5:00pm ET

Virtual Meeting

Objective

The primary objective of this meeting was to discuss the key HFIP strategies as documented in the HFIP Strategic plans including development of the next generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) within UFS. The current state of operational hurricane modeling capabilities and challenges, forecasters' needs and activities supporting operations as well as the results and accomplishments from the 2020 hurricane season will be discussed.

Outline

  • Day 1 (Nov 17): Programmatic Updates; Forecaster needs and activities supporting operations.
  • Day 2 (Nov 18): Updates from Current Operational Forecast; HFIP Stream 2 results; Special storm session.
  • Day 3 (Nov 19): HFIP Supported External Research; HAFS Development and Computations.

HFIP Display Survey Link

Agenda

Title Presenter Presentation
2:00 - 1:59am Day 1 - Tuesday, November 17, 2020
2:00pm Welcome Remarks Dorothy Koch  
2:10 - 3:10pm Programmatic updates Chair: Frank Marks; Co-chair: Vijay Tallapragada
2:10pm HFIP Goals and Status Frank Marks  
2:30pm HFIP Programmatic Updates, Plans and Budget Youngsun Jung  
2:50pm Hurricane Supplemental Updates Dorothy Koch  
3:10 - 6:30pm Forecaster needs and Activities Supporting Operations Chair: Ed Rappaport; Co-chair: Brian Zachry
3:10pm Current forecast capabilities - NHC verification John Cangialosi/Mike Brennan  
3:30pm NHC’s analysis and forecasting challenges Mike Brennan/Eric Blake  
3:50pm Verification of RI Metrics in 2020 James Franklin/Mark Demaria/Matt Onderlinde  
4:10pm Operational applications including ensemble products Brian Zachry/Franklin/DeMaria  
4:30pm JTWC TC activity, forecast challenges, and priorities Matt Kucas  
5:10pm Post Processing and Verification (PPAV) Team update David Zelinsky  
5:30pm Infrastructure: ATCF and AWIPS plans Mark DeMaria  
5:50pm Operational storm surge modeling Andrew Penny/Laura Alaka  
6:10pm Status of socio-economic projects Jennifer Sprague-Hilderband  
6:30 - 7:00pm HFIP Display - A need for Unified System Youngsun Jung & Jordan Dale  
2:00 - 1:59am Day 2 - Wednesday, November 18, 2020
2:00pm Updates on Current Operational Model Chair: S. Gopal, Co-chair: Youngsun Jung
2:00pm Current Operational Regional Model Advances and plans (Avichal Mehra)  
2:20pm Global Model advances and plans Vijay Tallapragada  
2:40pm RDHPCS Computing Vijay Tallapragada  
3:00pm HFIP Real-time reservation Experiment Chair: Avichal Mehra; Co-chair: S. Gopal
3:00pm Results from HAFS v0.1A Bin Liu  
3:20pm Results from HAFS v0.1B Andy Hazelton  
3:40pm Results from HAFS v0.1 Jili Dong  
4:00pm Results from HAFS v0.1E Zhan Zhang  
4:20pm Basin Scale HWRF-B Gus Alaka  
5:00pm GFS CAM Physics Georg Grell  
5:20pm HWRF CNN Jonathan Lin  
5:40pm Special session on Operational Modeling Challenges in 2020 (eg. ensembles; DA; RI) Chair: Vijay Tallapragada; Co-chair: Frank Marks
5:40pm Overview of Modeling challenges
5:40pm Issues identified by the forecasters (NHC/JTWC Mike Brennan/Matt Kucas  
5:40pm Issues identified by Modelers EMC/HRD - Zhan Zhang/Gus Alaka  
5:50pm Panel Presentation-1 Heming  
5:50pm Panel Presentation-2 Magnussen  
5:50pm Panel Presentation-3 Doyle  
5:50pm Panel Presentation-4 Tallapragada  
6:30pm Panel/Audience Q&A.
2:00 - 1:59am Day 3 Thursday, November 19, 2020
2:00pm HFIP (FFO) Funded External Research Reports Chair: Dorothy Koch; Co-chair: Mark Demaria
2:00pm Using Dynamically-Based Probabilistic Forecast Systems to Improve the NHC Wind Speed Products Alan Brammer/Andrea Schumacher  
2:10pm New Frameworks for Predicting Extreme Rapid Intensification Jonathan Vigh  
2:20pm Rapid Intensification Changes: Improving Sub-Grid Scale Model Parameterization and Microphysical-Dynamical Interaction Ping Zhu  
2:30pm Evaluating Initial Condition Perturbation Methods in the HWRF Ensemble Prediction System Ryan Torn  
2:40pm Advanced DA Techniques for Satellite-Derived Atmos. Motion Vectors from GOES 16/17 in the HWRF Agnes Lim  
2:50pm Enabling Cloud Condensate Cycling for All-Sky Radiance Assimilation in HWRF Lewis Grasso  
3:00pm HFIP Supported External Research Reports Chair: Youngsun Jung; Co-chair: Vijay Tallapragada
3:00pm Ground-based Radar DA in HWRF Hybrid Ensemble-variational Xuguang Wang  
3:20pm DTC Updates Kathryn Newman/Bin Liu  
3:30pm HAFS Development and Computations Chairs: Avichal Mehra and S. Gopal
3:30pm HAFS Configuration Strategies Avichal Mehra  
3:45pm Grid and Nesting Developments (Xuejin Zhang)  
4:00pm T-Shield Morris Bender/Tim Marchok  
4:15pm LAM FV3 testing Curtis Alexander  
4:30pm Development of Coupling Strategies for HAFS Avichal Mehra/ Dan Rosen  
5:05pm Physics Priorities Chunxi Zhang  
5:20pm CCPP Physics suite options for HAFS Man Zhang/Mrinal Biswas  
5:35pm DA Advancements and Use of observations Jason Sippel/Zhan Zhang  
5:50pm HAFS Workflow Evan Kalina  
6:05pm HAFS Computations S. Gopal/Frank Indiviglio/Vijay Tallapragada/Gus Alaka