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2:30 - 7:30pm
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DAY ONE (MONDAY, NOVEMBER 4 AFTERNOON)
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3:10pm
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Programmatic updates and Operational Modeling Session (Chair: Frank Marks)
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Chair: Frank Marks
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3:10pm
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Update on HFIP/Weather Act: status and goals
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Marks
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3:30pm
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Longer-term programmatic outlook, plans and budget
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Koch
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3:50pm
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Forecaster needs and Activities Supporting Operations
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Chair: Ed Rappaport
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3:50pm
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2019 Year in Review: Joint Typhoon Warning Center TC activity, forecast challenges, and priorities
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Belson
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4:10pm
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Current forecast capabilities - NHC Verification
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Cangialosi
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4:30pm
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NHC’s analysis and forecasting challenges
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Brennan/Blake
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5:10pm
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Operational applications including ensemble products
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Franklin/DeMaria
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5:30pm
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Post Processing and Verification (PPAV) Team Update
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Zelinsky
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5:50pm
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Infrastructure: ATCF and AWIPS plans
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DeMaria
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6:10pm
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Operational storm surge Modeling
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Alaka/Penny
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6:30pm
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Status of socio-economic projects
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Sprague-Hilderband
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2:00 - 1:59am
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DAY TWO (TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 5)
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11:00am
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Establishing the Programmatic Metric(s) for Rapid Intensification (RI)
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Moderator: Gopal
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11:00am
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Background and Introduce proposed metrics
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DeMaria/Franklin
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11:20am
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Open Discussion: Reaching consensus on metric(s) sampling
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11:40am
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Expert Panel: Modeling implications
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Panelist: Frank Marks, Vijay Tallapragada, Ryan Torn, Jim Doyle
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11:40am
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RI measuring techniques
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11:40am
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Model Skills in predicting RI
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12:40pm
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Updates on Modeling plans, computing and Supplemental
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Chair: Gopal
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12:40pm
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Global Model advances and plans for 2020 and beyond
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Tallapragada
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1:00pm
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Regional Model advances and plans for 2020 and beyond
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Mehra
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1:20pm
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RDHPCS Computing
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Tallapragada
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1:40pm
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Hurricane Supplemental 2019 Update
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Koch
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3:00pm
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Ongoing Efforts to build Next Generation Hurricane Model
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Chair: Tallapragada
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3:00pm
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Results and ongoing efforts from HAFS v0.A
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Liu/J. Dong
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3:20pm
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Results and ongoing efforts from HAFS v0.B
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Hazelton/Z. Zhang
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3:40pm
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Results from FV3SAR testing
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Alexander
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4:00pm
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Progress in Grid and Nesting development
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X. Zhang and Harris
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4:20pm
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Physics Priorities
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C. Zhang/Wang
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5:00pm
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DA Advancements and Use of observations
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Sippel
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5:20pm
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Hurricane Field Program updates and Use of observations
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Zawislak
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5:40pm
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CROW Workflow
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Kalina
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6:00pm
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CIME Workflow and repository
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Dunlap/Turuncoglu
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6:20pm
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Coupling Strategies
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Mehra
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6:20pm
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JTWC
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Belson
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6:20pm
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HRD
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Hazelton/Alaka
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6:30pm
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Special session on operational model problems in 2019, causes, potential solutions
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Tallapragada
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6:40pm
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Overview of Operational and Modeling challenges with major storms from the Centers (2-3 slides from each center
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6:40pm
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NHC
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Brennan
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6:40pm
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NCEP, ECMWF, UK Met, Navy
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Tallapragada
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2:00 - 1:59am
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DAY THREE (WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 6 MORNING)
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11:00am
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Using Dynamically-Based Probabilistic Forecast Systems to Improve the NHC Wind Speed Products
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Schumacher/Brammer
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11:00am
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HFIP Supported External Research Reports
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Chair: Koch
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11:10am
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New Frameworks for Predicting Extreme Rapid Intensification
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Emanuel/Vigh
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11:20am
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Rapid Intensification Changes: Improving Sub-Grid Scale Model Parameterization and Microphysical-Dynamical Interaction
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Zhu
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11:30am
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valuating Initial Condition Perturbation Methods in the HWRF Ensemble Prediction System
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Torn
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11:40am
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Enabling Cloud Condensate Cycling for All-Sky Radiance Assimilation in HWRF
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T-C Wu
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11:50am
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Display and Diagnostics
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Kucera/Burek
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12:00pm
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DTC Updates
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Newman
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12:30pm
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Results of Real-time reservation Experiments
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Chair: Mehra
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12:30pm
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Basin-Scale HWRF-B
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Alaka/Thomas
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12:40pm
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HWRF Ensemble
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Z. Zhang
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12:50pm
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HMON ensemble
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Wang
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1:00pm
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HWRF with No Vortex Initialization
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Kalina
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1:10pm
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Analog Ensemble
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Rozoff/Lewis
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1:20pm
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Summary and Concluding Remarks
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Marks
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2:00pm
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DAY 3 (WEDNESDAY NOV 6, 2019 AFTERNOON - INVITE ONLY)
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2:30 - 7:00pm
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HAFS Developer's meeting - Next steps for HAFS
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2:30pm
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Charge for this session
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Mehra/Gopal
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2:40pm
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Configuration Strategy
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Mehra/Gopal
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2:40pm
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Lessons from HAFS v0.A and HAFS v0.B
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2:40pm
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Plans to configure test and validate single storm HAFS v0.1
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3:15pm
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Code repository management and Test plan Strategies
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Alexander/Marchok
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3:15pm
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Code repository and support
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3:15pm
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Develop HAFS evaluation diagnostics (storm tracker on native grid and tracker for products)
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3:15pm
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Real-time/retrospective testing at various stages
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4:00pm
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Nesting Strategy and Timeline
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(X. Zhang/Harris
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4:00pm
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Develop pre-processing tools supporting multi-level nesting
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4:00pm
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Schedule for developing algorithms for telescopic nests in FV3
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4:00pm
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Code next moving algorithm crossing the faces of the cubed sphere edges
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4:00pm
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Modify FMS code to implement the crossing edge algorithm - challenges / timelines
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5:00pm
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Physics Strategy
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Tallapragada
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5:00pm
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HWRF Physics; other physics options
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5:00pm
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Connection to CCPP
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5:00pm
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Coupling to ocean (HYCOM and MOM6); Coupling to waves
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5:45pm
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Initialization/DA Strategies
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Marks/Winterbottom
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5:45pm
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Inner core DA developments
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5:45pm
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DA using the JEDI framework
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5:45pm
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Options for Vortex Initialization/Relocation
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