2019 HFIP Annual Meeting

Nov 4, 2019, 2:00am - Nov 7, 2019, 1:59am ET

Key Biscayne Meeting Room at the Embassy Suites Airport
Miami International Airport, Florida

Objective

The primary objective of this meeting was to discuss the key HFIP strategies as listed in the HFIP document, including developing the next generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), which can provide an operational analysis and forecast out to seven days, with reliable and skillful guidance on TC track and intensity (including rapid intensification), storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall and tornadoes associated with TCs. The current state of operational hurricane capabilities and challenges, as well as the results and accomplishments from the 2019 hurricane season, were also discussed, allowing development of future plans to further improve hurricane forecast guidance in the upcoming years.

Agenda

Title Presenter Presentation
DAY ONE (MONDAY, NOVEMBER 4 AFTERNOON)
Programmatic updates and Operational Modeling Session (Chair: Frank Marks) Chair: Frank Marks
Update on HFIP/Weather Act: status and goals Marks  
Longer-term programmatic outlook, plans and budget Koch  
Forecaster needs and Activities Supporting Operations Chair: Ed Rappaport
2019 Year in Review: Joint Typhoon Warning Center TC activity, forecast challenges, and priorities Belson  
Current forecast capabilities - NHC Verification Cangialosi  
NHC’s analysis and forecasting challenges Brennan/Blake  
Operational applications including ensemble products Franklin/DeMaria  
Post Processing and Verification (PPAV) Team Update Zelinsky  
Infrastructure: ATCF and AWIPS plans DeMaria  
Operational storm surge Modeling Alaka/Penny  
Status of socio-economic projects Sprague-Hilderband  
DAY TWO (TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 5)
Establishing the Programmatic Metric(s) for Rapid Intensification (RI) Moderator: Gopal
Background and Introduce proposed metrics DeMaria/Franklin  
Open Discussion: Reaching consensus on metric(s) sampling  
Expert Panel: Modeling implications Panelist: Frank Marks, Vijay Tallapragada, Ryan Torn, Jim Doyle  
RI measuring techniques  
Model Skills in predicting RI  
Updates on Modeling plans, computing and Supplemental Chair: Gopal
Global Model advances and plans for 2020 and beyond Tallapragada  
Regional Model advances and plans for 2020 and beyond Mehra  
RDHPCS Computing Tallapragada  
Hurricane Supplemental 2019 Update Koch  
Ongoing Efforts to build Next Generation Hurricane Model Chair: Tallapragada
Results and ongoing efforts from HAFS v0.A Liu/J. Dong  
Results and ongoing efforts from HAFS v0.B Hazelton/Z. Zhang  
Results from FV3SAR testing Alexander  
Progress in Grid and Nesting development X. Zhang and Harris  
Physics Priorities C. Zhang/Wang  
DA Advancements and Use of observations Sippel  
Hurricane Field Program updates and Use of observations Zawislak  
CROW Workflow Kalina  
CIME Workflow and repository Dunlap/Turuncoglu  
Coupling Strategies Mehra  
JTWC Belson  
HRD Hazelton/Alaka  
Special session on operational model problems in 2019, causes, potential solutions Tallapragada
Overview of Operational and Modeling challenges with major storms from the Centers (2-3 slides from each center
NHC Brennan  
NCEP, ECMWF, UK Met, Navy Tallapragada  
DAY THREE (WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 6 MORNING)
Using Dynamically-Based Probabilistic Forecast Systems to Improve the NHC Wind Speed Products Schumacher/Brammer  
HFIP Supported External Research Reports Chair: Koch
New Frameworks for Predicting Extreme Rapid Intensification Emanuel/Vigh  
Rapid Intensification Changes: Improving Sub-Grid Scale Model Parameterization and Microphysical-Dynamical Interaction Zhu
valuating Initial Condition Perturbation Methods in the HWRF Ensemble Prediction System Torn
Enabling Cloud Condensate Cycling for All-Sky Radiance Assimilation in HWRF T-C Wu
Display and Diagnostics Kucera/Burek  
DTC Updates Newman  
Results of Real-time reservation Experiments Chair: Mehra
Basin-Scale HWRF-B Alaka/Thomas  
HWRF Ensemble Z. Zhang  
HMON ensemble Wang  
HWRF with No Vortex Initialization Kalina  
Analog Ensemble Rozoff/Lewis  
Summary and Concluding Remarks Marks  
DAY 3 (WEDNESDAY NOV 6, 2019 AFTERNOON - INVITE ONLY)
HAFS Developer's meeting - Next steps for HAFS
Charge for this session Mehra/Gopal  
Configuration Strategy Mehra/Gopal
Lessons from HAFS v0.A and HAFS v0.B
Plans to configure test and validate single storm HAFS v0.1
Code repository management and Test plan Strategies Alexander/Marchok
Code repository and support  
Develop HAFS evaluation diagnostics (storm tracker on native grid and tracker for products)  
Real-time/retrospective testing at various stages
Nesting Strategy and Timeline (X. Zhang/Harris
Develop pre-processing tools supporting multi-level nesting  
Schedule for developing algorithms for telescopic nests in FV3  
Code next moving algorithm crossing the faces of the cubed sphere edges
Modify FMS code to implement the crossing edge algorithm - challenges / timelines
Physics Strategy Tallapragada
HWRF Physics; other physics options
Connection to CCPP  
Coupling to ocean (HYCOM and MOM6); Coupling to waves  
Initialization/DA Strategies Marks/Winterbottom
Inner core DA developments
DA using the JEDI framework
Options for Vortex Initialization/Relocation